oil and bonds

Oil prices affect Treasury yields mainly through inflation expectations, breakeven rates, and central bank policy repricing. In 2026, that relationship has become more important as supply-driven oil shocks and geopolitical risks push crude prices higher and lift borrowing costs across sovereign debt markets. This guide explains the main transmission channels, why the yield response can vary by scenario, and what traders should watch across the curve as oil-driven inflation reshapes bond-market expectations.